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Stef
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#1 Posted: Sat Nov 1st, 2008 10:36 am |
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Another month, another dollar.
Stef
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Webbo
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#2 Posted: Sat Nov 1st, 2008 11:09 am |
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Yes here we go again. Thanks to Steph and Selphie made 242 points profit myself. 
A big thank you to you both. Keep up the good work it really is appreciated.
Webbo
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Stef
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#3 Posted: Sat Nov 1st, 2008 11:20 am |
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New month, zero bank start.
01 November 2008;
1) SOLD Wetherby SP @ 39(I) for 8pts
2) SOLD Down Royal DI @ 39(S) for 4pts
Happy spreading!
Stef
Firms: (S)porting, (I)GSport, Spreade(X), (C)antorSpreadfair (All) same price with all firms
Markets traded: (DI) winning lengths, (SP) starting prices, (F) favourites
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Stef
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#4 Posted: Sat Nov 1st, 2008 06:03 pm |
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And tonight (only just got back home) . . .
3) SOLD Great Leighs SP @ 43.5(C) for 8pts
Happy spreading!
Stef
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Stef
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#5 Posted: Sun Nov 2nd, 2008 11:58 am |
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Results from 01 November 2008:
Bank brought forward: 0.00
1) SOLD Wetherby SP @ 39(I) for 8pts MU=43.3 (-34.40)
2) SOLD Down Royal DI @ 39(S) for 4pts MU=34.5 (+27.00)
Day's returns: W:L 1:1 P/L -7.40
This Month: Strike Rate W:L 1:1 Profit/Loss per 1pt stake -0.53 Total P/L -7.40
02 November 2008;
3) SOLD Carlisle SP @ 31(All) for 4pts
4) SOLD Cork DI @ 40(S) for 6pts
5) SOLD Cork SP @ 51(S) for 8pts
Happy spreading!
Stef
Firms: (S)porting, (I)GSport, Spreade(X), (C)antorSpreadfair (All) same price with all firms
Markets traded: (DI) winning lengths, (SP) starting prices, (F) favourites
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selphie
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#6 Posted: Sun Nov 2nd, 2008 02:47 pm |
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BTW How have your 8 point SP bets been doing?
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Stef
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#7 Posted: Sun Nov 2nd, 2008 03:55 pm |
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selphie wrote: BTW How have your 8 point SP bets been doing?
Before today's trade, there had been 12 double stakers. Outcome: 9 wins, 3 losers, +633.60 profit.
So not bad really. One of the losers was yesterday, and so in this month's tally, all-in-all therefore I'd have had a better month forgettin' all the other bets and just sticking with the double stakers only.
Stef
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Stef
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#8 Posted: Sun Nov 2nd, 2008 05:43 pm |
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That reply of course was before the final race at Cork blew a 33/1 hole in my double-stakes SP strategy. Despite 2 wins from 3 trades today, another losing day for an unenviable current record of 11 losing days from the last 14.
A upward change in fortunes on the cards m'thinks (m'hopes?)
Stef
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Stef
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#9 Posted: Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 12:28 pm |
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Results from 02 November 2008:
Bank brought forward: -7.40
3) SOLD Carlisle SP @ 31(All) for 4pts MU=23.7 (+29.20)
4) SOLD Cork DI @ 40(S) for 6pts MU=36.4 (+21.60)
5) SOLD Cork SP @ 51(S) for 8pts MU=73.3 (-178.40)
Day's returns: W:L 2:1 P/L -127.60
This Month: Strike Rate W:L 3:2 Profit/Loss per 1pt stake -4.22 Total P/L -135.00
03 November 2008;
6) SOLD Warwick SP @ 45(S,I,C) for 4pts
Happy spreading!
Stef
Firms: (S)porting, (I)GSport, Spreade(X), (C)antorSpreadfair (All) same price with all firms
Markets traded: (DI) winning lengths, (SP) starting prices, (F) favourites
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selphie
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#10 Posted: Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 02:03 pm |
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Stef wrote: That reply of course was before the final race at Cork blew a 33/1 hole in my double-stakes SP strategy. Despite 2 wins from 3 trades today, another losing day for an unenviable current record of 11 losing days from the last 14.
A upward change in fortunes on the cards m'thinks (m'hopes?)
Stef
The last race at Cork was a bumper. These races are particularly unpleasant as far as I'm concerned. When I assess my races I calculate two numbers, the estimated SP I happy to sell at and the spread of results (variance) of the results I would expect.
Looking at Plumpton today the second race is a a 2m maiden hurdle where my numbers are 5.5 and 78 looking at the maiden 2m bumper race at the end of the card the numbers are 7.5 and 146. So while I expect the SP to be two points longer the spread of possible results is over twice as much. So with two races both as it happens with 12 runners I would be far more expectant of getting a long priced horse in the bumper than the hurdle.
Comparing it with say the third race at Wolves, a 3 YO class 6 1m 6f handicap, where I would have figures of 8.5 and 50 so, although I need to allow 3 points more the chance of getting a really bad result is much greater in the bumper than the handicap.
National Hunt cards with bumpers are not my favourite area.
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Stef
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#11 Posted: Tue Nov 4th, 2008 04:52 pm |
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selphie wrote: The last race at Cork was a bumper. These races are particularly unpleasant as far as I'm concerned. When I assess my races I calculate two numbers, the estimated SP I happy to sell at and the spread of results (variance) of the results I would expect.
Looking at Plumpton today the second race is a a 2m maiden hurdle where my numbers are 5.5 and 78 looking at the maiden 2m bumper race at the end of the card the numbers are 7.5 and 146. So while I expect the SP to be two points longer the spread of possible results is over twice as much. So with two races both as it happens with 12 runners I would be far more expectant of getting a long priced horse in the bumper than the hurdle.
Comparing it with say the third race at Wolves, a 3 YO class 6 1m 6f handicap, where I would have figures of 8.5 and 50 so, although I need to allow 3 points more the chance of getting a really bad result is much greater in the bumper than the handicap.
National Hunt cards with bumpers are not my favourite area.
Severe restriction on NH meetings if you exclude those with bumper races?
My calculations take account of race type (chase, hurdle, bumper) so any upward pressure on odds should be catered for. Both Plumpton & Warwick yesterday had final a race bumper and I can change the race category in each race and observe the effects. Using the sequence chase, hurdle, bumper my SP prediction in Plumpton's last race, all other parameters unchanged, is either 6.63, 6.85 or 7.07 respectively. At Warwick (in the same order) I get 8.09, 8.39 & 8.68.
I've been confused I think about the "volatility" you keep referring to. The leveraged nature of spread betting requires me to estimate the mean average of the markets I trade better than do the spread firms. e.g. If I estimate an SP to be 8.00, then over 100 identical races if the aggregate SP totals 800, I'm spot on. If each one of those 100 races returned an 8/1 winner, my definition of volatility here would be nil. But if a couple of 100/1 winners were in there (and a corresponding number of very short odds winners), I'd say volatility was high. However, the base profit/loss projection in either case is exactly the same.
I'd assumed that your "Volatility" mark helped you to avoid high risk situations where SP returns would vary greatly, but I'm obviously missing the point because you go on to offer comparisons to illustrate that your tactics outperform level stakes. The conclusion to be drawn from this is that your less "volatile" bets, those where you place the larger stakes, have better returns than your high volatile bets. i.e they are more accurate.
So, my thought processes have led me to now understand that the volatility you refer to is more along the lines of accuracy?
e.g Predicted SP of 8.0 with a volatility index of 50 would, over 100 bets, produce an aggregate of 800 plus or minus, say, 25 (=775 to 825)
Whereas a volatility index of 150 would produce an aggregate over 100 bets of 800 plus or minus say, 60 (=740 to 860)
Volatility here therefore means how good are the chances of getting the prediction right, or another definition of accuracy. Am I on the right lines, or getting even more confused?
Stef
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selphie
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#12 Posted: Tue Nov 4th, 2008 07:47 pm |
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This is the way I look at it.
Imagine I have a finite bank that I can bet from.
I have two bets one with a volatility of 100 and an advantage of 2. The other with a volatility of 200 and an advantage of 2.
Looking purely on the downside I can put more money on the first bet per point as it is a less risky bet. It has a HIGHER downside. I regard volatility as a counter for putting money on, if the bet has a high volatility I should put less on because I am risking more. The advantage is exactly the same in both cases. All I am doing is moving my money into bets where I have less risk for the same advantage.
For reasons of mathematics the optimal bet as far as I'm concerned is to bet in proportion to the advantage divided by the volatility.
So I would put more on a bet that had an advantage of 1 and a volatility of 200 than on one with an advantage of 3 and a volatility of 800
In terms oc calculating volatilty it is the variance of the actual results when compared to the predicted results.
So considering say a 2m Bumper @ Ludlow on soft going with a favourite priced less than 2/1 with 14 runners then I might predict 8. If I compare all the races that are equivalent where I predict 8 I might find the variance to be 100.
So volatility is nothing to do with the advantage. It can mean I put more on lower advantage bets and less on higher ones however the math says it should control my overall volatility.
BTW does the ratio advantage/variance look familiar?
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Stef
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#13 Posted: Wed Nov 5th, 2008 04:59 pm |
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Results from 03 November 2008:
Bank brought forward: -135.00
6) SOLD Warwick SP @ 45(S,I,C) for 4pts MU=39.4 (+22.40)
Day's returns: W:L 1:0 P/L +22.40
This Month: Strike Rate W:L 4:2 Profit/Loss per 1pt stake -3.13 Total P/L -112.60
04 November 2008, no trades
05 November 2008;
7) SOLD Kempton F @ 64(S) for 4pts
Happy spreading!
Stef
Firms: (S)porting, (I)GSport, Spreade(X), (C)antorSpreadfair (All) same price with all firms
Markets traded: (DI) winning lengths, (SP) starting prices, (F) favourites
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Stef
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#14 Posted: Thu Nov 6th, 2008 11:47 am |
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Results from 05 November 2008:
Bank brought forward: -112.60
7) SOLD Kempton F @ 64(S) for 4pts MU=95 (-124.00)
Day's returns: W:L 0:1 P/L -124.00
This Month: Strike Rate W:L 4:3 Profit/Loss per 1pt stake -5.92 Total P/L -236.60
06 November 2008;
8) SOLD Lingfield SP @ 39(S) for 4pts
9) SOLD Thurles DI @ 40(S) for 6pts
10) SOLD Thurles SP @ 48(S) for 8pts
Happy spreading!
Stef
Firms: (S)porting, (I)GSport, Spreade(X), (C)antorSpreadfair (All) same price with all firms
Markets traded: (DI) winning lengths, (SP) starting prices, (F) favourites
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Stef
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#15 Posted: Fri Nov 7th, 2008 11:01 am |
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Results from 06 November 2008:
Bank brought forward: -236.60
8) SOLD Lingfield SP @ 39(S) for 4pts MU=37.7 (+5.20)
9) SOLD Thurles DI @ 40(S) for 6pts MU=47.25 (-43.50)
10) SOLD Thurles SP @ 48(S) for 8pts MU=21.5 (+212.00)
Day's returns: W:L 2:1 P/L +173.70
This Month: Strike Rate W:L 6:4 Profit/Loss per 1pt stake -1.08 Total P/L -62.90
07 November 2008;
11) SOLD Hexham DI @ 46(X) for 6pts
Happy spreading!
Stef
Firms: (S)porting, (I)GSport, Spreade(X), (C)antorSpreadfair (All) same price with all firms
Markets traded: (DI) winning lengths, (SP) starting prices, (F) favourites
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